Monitoring Cotton Varietal Diffusion in Pakistan

By Aslam Memon, M.I. Lashari & A.M. Khushk

The adoption of a new technology that allows the factors of production to be used more efficiently can, depending on the adoption rate and aggregate use of the technology, cause the structure of a market to change. One of the more remarkable recent technological breakthroughs in agriculture has been transgenic seed varieties. Genetically modified (GM) cotton varieties have changed many aspects of cotton production in the united States. The advent of GM varieties has been the source of altered cropping practices in cotton production, (Huffman and Evanson 1997). Huffman and Evanson (1997) found that public extension, education of farmers, and agricultural commodity programs contributed to productivity on U.S. farms. They also found that the change in farm size was mostly due to changes in input prices and that the change in input prices was a dominant force in increasing crop specialization.

The varietal diffusion information is useful to stakeholders from different perspectives like breeders can use it to reform their breeding agenda in terms of more adaptability of their varieties to local conditions; plant protection scientists and institutions can plan their experimentation and future activities; output procuring agencies can plan their procurement strategies from different geographical areas; other marketing agencies (inputs supplying, plant protection related agencies, etc.) can plan their area and farm specific activities; and finally, the policy makers may use this information in designing more targeted policy incentives to promote the diffusion of desired varieties.

In the past (in the times of Agricultural Economics Research Units of PARC), the Technology Transfer Institutes of PARC located at provincial Agricultural Research Institutes used to carry out varietal diffusion monitoring surveys of major crops as a regular activity to provide feedback to biological scientists, development practitioners and policy makers. The need of such surveys has been felt again in the policy making circles, annual planning meetings of biological scientists, technical advisory committee meetings and other high level meetings of the national agricultural research system (NARS). The initial review of available literature and survey findings are inconclusive in reporting the issues pertaining to cost of production and yield differences, irrigation water requirement, composition of sprays for sucking and chewing types of insects reddening, wilting, defoliation problem in Bt cotton, attack of CLCV and white fly, susceptibility to heat stress, etc. all this signifies a dire need for assessing the adoption of Bt cotton and to provide feedback to the policy makers, researchers and other stakeholders. The present survey has been carried out to provide updated information on the status of Bt cotton varietal diffusion in cotton growing areas of Punjab, Sindh and Balochistan provinces.

Cotton Varieties Planted by Sample Farms

More than 37 cotton varieties were cultivated by sample farmers in the study area during the years 2008 and 2009. These cultivars were grouped as genetically modified varieties/Bt varieties and conventional/non-Bt varieties by provinces.

The varieties under cultivation from genetically modified/Bt group were: IRFH-901, Bt-109, IRCIM-196, IRCIM-448, Bt-3701, Bt-703, Bt-101, Bt-404, Bt-171, Bt-112, Bt-131, Bt-333, Bt-144, Bt-121, Bt-193, Bt-802, Bt-806, Bt-1524, Monsanto Bt, Bt-511, Bt-S1, BT-A1 and Bt-370. The conventional/non-Bt varieties found on farmers’ fields were NIAB-78, NIAB-111, NIAB-884, CIM-473, CIM-482, CIM-496, CIM-499, CIM-506, CIM-511, CRIS-134, FH-901, BH-160, VH-137 and MNH-786. Overall, about 47.5 percent of total

cotton area was planted under Bt varieties during 2008, which was increased up to 63 percent (Fig.5.1). Among the Bt varieties the largest proportion of area was planted under Bt-121 variety 27.6 percent during 2008 and decreased up to 25.3 percent during 2009.

In conventional varieties, about 52.5 percent of total cotton area was planted under conventional varieties during 2008, which was decreased up to 37 percent (Fig.5.2). The largest proportionate area was planted under varieties like NIAB-78 (21.53%) CIM-496 (8.48 percent) and CIM-506 (7.85%) during 2008. The data shows that there was much decrease in the area of NIAB-78 up to 12.52% and increase in the area of CIM-506 (14.37%) in following year of 2009.

In Sindh, 23 cotton varieties were cultivated by sample cotton growers and more than 60 percent of total cotton area was planted under conventional/non-Bt varieties during 2008 and increase of about 2 percentage point was observed in following year of 2009. Among them, the largest proportionate area was planted under varieties like NIAB-78 (21.74%), CIM-506 (18.58%) and CRIS-134 (8.82%) during 2008. The analysis shows that there was much decrease in the area of NIAB-78 up to 7.48% and increase in the area of CIM-506 up to 37.73% in following year of 2009. In Bt varieties group, largest proportion of area was planted und

er Bt-121 variety 15.49 percent and IRFH-901 10.21 percent of cotton area during 2008 and it was observed that the area under Bt-121 was decreased up to 5.69 percent during 2009.

In Punjab, 32 cotton varieties were cultivated by sample farmers and more than 71 percent of total cotton area was planted under Bt varieties during 2008 which was increased up to 86 percent in following year of 2009. Among Bt varieties group, largestproportion of area was planted under Bt-121 variety (50.97 percent), IRCIM-196 (4.75 percent) and Bt-802 (4.41 percent) of cotton area during 2008 and it was observed that the area under Bt-121 was little bit decreased up to 46.31 percent during 2009. in the conventional group of varieties the largest proportionate area was planted under the variety CIM-496 (14.22 percent) which was decreased up to 4.01 percent in the following year 2009.

In Balochistan, 15 cotton varieties were cultivated by sample farmers and about 27 percent of total cotton area was planted under Bt varieties during 2008 which was increased up to 39 percent in following year of 2009. Among Bt varieties group, largest proportion of area was planted under Bt-121 variety (10.79 percent), S-1 (10.69 percent) and Bt-3701 (5.09 percent) of cotton area during 2009. The conventional varieties NIAB-78 was the most dominant variety in Balochistan and cultivated about 58.42 percent during 2008 and decreased up to 47.68 percent in the following year 2009 due to increase in the Bt varieties.

As per expectations, data indicate that large farm size group have more proportion of area under Bt varieties compared to small and medium size farmers. Between 2008 and 2009, the increase was observed under Bt cotton varieties all farm size groups but little bit more increase was observed in small and medium size farmers as compared to large (Fig.5.3). There is no significant variation was observed in varietal composition of all farm size groups. In Bt varieties, Bt-121 and in conventional varieties NIAB-78 and CIM-496 was relatively dominant varieties in all farm size categories’ farms. Considering distribution of cotton varieties across tenancy groups, the percent area under genetically modified/Bt varieties was some higher on owner -cum-tenants farms than the tenants and owners. Between 2008 and 2009, the increase was observed in all tenancy groups and the largest improvement in percentage points in Bt varieties area was noticed on owner-cum-tenants’ farms which may imply that they were relatively more active in varietal replacement process (Fig.5.5). In Bt varieties Bt-121 and in conventional varieties NIAB-78 was relatively dominant varieties on all tenancy categories’ farms.